SAG & Golden Globes Noms Statistics Suggest Chances of Oscar Nom Increases, But The Numbers Don’t Always Add Up.
About the Golden Globes….
Ok, the Hollywood Foreign Press Association (HFPA) is weird. As writer Anne Thompson described in her blog predicting the 2016 Golden Globes Nominees, regarding the HFPA:
an idiosyncratic group of 90 entertainment editors and writers who report on the film and television business for their outlets in 55 countries, is no easy task. They are wined and dined all year by publicists, and sent on studio junkets where they conduct round table interviews, and hang with stars at various parties. Many of these media folks consider themselves to be friends with the stars, because they have been covering them for so long.”
In other words, the HFPA wants and enjoys big stars at their Golden Globes ceremonies. Therefore, while their tastes range from indie centric films to more mainstream fare, they want the famous people in the seats. Which is why you’ll hear names like Leonardo Di Caprio, Matt Damon, Johnny Depp, and Jennifer Lawrence.
The Screen Actors Guild nominations, which were released Wednesday morning, similarly boost momentum. Whilst the SAG nominating committee, which alters annually, has the tendency to be a bit more conventional in comparison to the Oscars, they are normally a bit more predictive in comparison to the Globes, as these individuals hail from within the movie neighborhood.
As The Hollywood Reporter investigated, SAG and Golden Globe nominations don’t always lead to Oscar nods:
Not all Oscar predictors are created equal. Since the start of the expanded best picture era in 2009, the Golden Globes have matched the Academy on 39 best picture nominees out of 55, or 71 percent. The Screen Actors Guild (using SAG’s best ensemble cast award as a best picture proxy) has matched the Oscars on only 25 films, or 45 percent.
Interestingly, this year, SAG decided to go noticeably more mainstream; the film with the most nominees is Trumbo — which was well received, but not necessarily something you’d expect to dominate the nominations. The Golden Globes are a bit more different. Also, a huge factor to take into account is that the HFPA likes to separate Drama from Musical/Comedy — although in recent years, what’s considered a drama and what’s considered comedy has gotten more blurred. So, there are more actors nominated for Golden Globes than SAG awards.
The biggest delightful surprise of the Golden Globes is the love for Mad Max: Fury Road. Also, Jennifer Jason Leigh could have a Patricia Arquette type comeback this year with her Best Supporting Actress nomination for The Hateful Eight.
Finally, it’s fantastic to see Sly Stallone get some love for his fantastic performance in Creed.