Predicting the Oscars:
Well, it’s alas the Super Bowl Sunday of the Motion Picture industry, Oscar Sunday. I must say, from a prediction standpoint, this should be one of the easiest to predict Oscars ever. There’s not really been much suspense in this awards season. For the most part, it’s pretty clear, at least to me, who the winners will be.
Now, the Oscars can possibly throw us a curveball as they have a few times in past awards ceremonies (this year marks the 88th Academy Awards), but it’s usually best to stick with the statistics on this one. For the ultimate stat geeks guide to the Oscars, I really suggest you take a look at what the folks at FiveThirtyEight.com have done with their Oscars Race calculations. It’s insanely comprehensive. They follow the trends of the awards shows that precede the Oscars; ie. the Golden Globes, the Critics’ Choice Awards, the BAFTAs and the Screen Actors Guild Awards.
Like I’ve said before, there can be the potential for surprises. For every predictable awards ceremony there’s also examples of shocks like Crash winning Best Picture over Brokeback Mountain, or Adrien Brody winning Best Actor in 2003 over Jack Nicholson, Daniel Day Lewis, Nicholas Cage, and Michael Caine (wow).
Final Predictions by Category
For these predictions, I’m going to stick to what I feel are the nine most important categories: Best Cinematography, Best Adapted & Original Screenplays, Best Supporting Actor, Best Supporting Actress, Best Actor, Best Actress, Best Director, and Best Picture. In addition to picking who I feel will win, I will also provide my personal choice as well.
Will Win: Emmanuel Lubezki, The Revenant
Should Win: Emmanuel Lubezki, The Revenant
This is pretty much Chivo’s category all the way. He’s the most celebrated DP in the business.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Will Win: Charles Randolph and Adam McKay, The Big Short
Should Win: Nick Hornby, Brooklyn
Not that I would be upset at The Big Short taking home this prize, it’s a great script, but I feel Nick Hornby’s adaptation of Colm Tóibín’s novel Brooklyn is sheer perfection.
Best Original Screenplay
Will Win: Tom McCarthy and Josh Singer, Spotlight
Should Win: Alex Garland, Ex Machina
Again, not that I don’t love Spotlight’s screenplay but i just adore Alex Garland’s screenplay for Ex Machina a little more.
Best Supporting Actor
Will Win: Sylvester Stallone, Creed
Should Win: Sylvester Stallone, Creed
However, don’t count out Mark Rylance for Bridge of Spies.
Best Supporting Actress
Will Win: Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
Should Win: Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
Don’t be surprised if Kate Winslet in Steve Jobs takes this home as well, but Vikander has had all the momentum the last few weeks to kind of deflate Winslet’s Golden Globe win over a month ago.
Will Win: Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Should Win: Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
Look, I’m totally fine with Leo winning this award. He deserves it. It’s kind of a mid life achievement award, but Leo has been dicked over so many times in the past it’s hard to disagree that he will win tonight. I just think Fassbender is the best out of all the nominees.
Leo is undefeated. He has won: the Golden Globe for best actor in a drama, best actor at the Screen Actors Guild, the BAFTA, the Critics’ Choice award, the Satellite Award, and the Chicago Film Critics Association award.
Will Win: Brie Larson, Room
Should Win: Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
Brie Larson has won six of the seven prizes for which she was nominated, losing only at the Satellite Awards to Saoirse Ronan for Brooklyn, which is my choice out of the nominees. My overall choice for Best Actress is Charlize Theron in Mad Max: Fury Road, who sadly wasn’t nominated.
Will Win: Alejandro G. Iñárritu, The Revenant
Should Win: George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
With this win, Iñárritu will become the first director to win back to back Oscars since Joseph L. Mankiewicz did in 1949 & 1950. George Miller does have an outside chance and would certainly be my favorite, but when in doubt, go with the Director’s Guild of America choice in this category.
Will Win: The Revenant
Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Simply comes down to a numbers game, but I prefer Mad Max: Fury Road since it’s my number one film from 2015. Out of the eight nominees this year it’s really just a three picture race: The Big Short (PGA Winner), Spotlight (SAG Winner), and The Revenant (Golden Globe & BAFTA winner). For a while, The Revenant’s only win (for the film) was best drama at the Golden Globes. But in the final weeks of the campaign, a massive win at the Directors Guild for Iñárritu and a best film win at the BAFTAs pushed the movie into front-runner status.